Israel's 2026 Election: A Guide for Our Community

From the HBT Israeli-Palestinian Program Committee. Current as of October 7, 2026. We will update this page after official results on November 4.

How the election works

• What's a "list"? Each party submits a ranked list of candidates. Voters pick a list, not individual people. If a list wins 10 seats, the top 10 names on it enter the Knesset. Some lists are a single party; others are two or three parties running together.
• One national vote. The whole country is a single district. Seats are divided in proportion to each list's share of the vote.
• A 3.25% cutoff. A list needs at least 3.25% of the vote, about 4 seats, to enter the Knesset. Votes for lists that fall short are effectively lost.
• No one wins alone. No party has ever won a majority by itself. The real contest is which group of parties reaches 61.

After the results:

1. Consultations. President Isaac Herzog meets every party that won seats and asks whom they recommend.
2. First try. He asks the person with the best chance to form a government. That person gets 28 days, plus up to 14 more.
3. Second try. If that fails, he can give someone else 28 days, with no extension.
4. Knesset nomination. If that fails too, anyone backed in writing by 61 members can try.
5. New elections. If no one succeeds, Israel votes again. Until then, Netanyahu's government stays on as a caretaker.

The president does not pick the winner on his own. Coalition arithmetic does.

The main parties and people

38 lists are on the ballot, but only about a dozen are serious contenders. They fall into three camps.

Likud (with New Hope)

BNBenjamin Netanyahu

In its own words

National-liberal: security, free markets, sovereignty

How the news describes it

Right-wing; largest party since 2009

Otzma Yehudit

IBItamar Ben-Gvir

In its own words

Nationalist-religious; assertive security policy and settlement expansion

How the news describes it

Far-right; ideological heir to the banned Kach movement

Religious Zionism with Zehut

BSBezalel Smotrich MFMoshe Feiglin

In its own words

National-religious; "full sovereignty over the Land of Israel"

How the news describes it

Far-right; leading voice for settlements and annexation

Shas

ADAryeh Deri

In its own words

Sephardi Haredi party of tradition and Judaism; funding for Torah institutions

How the news describes it

Ultra-Orthodox; pragmatic coalition partner

United Torah Judaism

YAYaakov Asher YGYitzhak Goldknopf

In its own words

Ashkenazi Haredi alliance for a Torah-observant life

How the news describes it

Ultra-Orthodox; defends military-service exemptions for yeshiva students

Yashar!

GEGadi Eisenkot

In its own words

Centrist and statist; public trust and responsible management

How the news describes it

Centrist, security-minded; led by a former IDF chief of staff

Together (B'Yachad)

NBNaftali Bennett YLYair Lapid

In its own words

Zionist unity, protecting democratic institutions, sharing the service burden

How the news describes it

Center to center-right; Bennett's new party and Lapid's Yesh Atid on one list

The Democrats

YGYair Golan

In its own words

Liberal, center-left; a political solution with the Palestinians

How the news describes it

Center-left; merger of Labor and Meretz

Yisrael Beiteinu

ALAvigdor Lieberman

In its own words

Secular center-right; "equal conscription" and separation of religion and state

How the news describes it

Secular right-wing nationalist; strongly opposes Haredi exemptions

Ra'am (United Arab List)

MAMansour Abbas

In its own words

"A completely civil party"; Arab-Islamic, with Jewish candidates, including former Yesh Atid member Yoav Segalovitz

How the news describes it

Islamist roots, pragmatic; sat in the 2021-22 government

Joint List

YJYousef Jabareen

With Ahmad Tibi and Sami Abou Shahadeh

In its own words

Hadash: Arab-Jewish socialist. Ta'al: equality for Arab citizens. Balad: Israel as "a state of all its citizens"

How the news describes it

Hadash is left-wing; Balad is Arab nationalist and anti-Zionist

You may notice every leader pictured is a man. Women hold high spots on several lists, including Naama Lazimi (The Democrats) and Orit Strook (Religious Zionism), but none leads a major list this year. The two Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, do not run women candidates.

Small parties to watch. These lists are polling near the 3.25% cutoff. If one gets in, it wins about 4 seats; if it misses, its votes are lost.

• Am Yisrael ("People of Israel"), Ofer Winter. New right-wing list of reservists and bereaved families. Some pollsters count it in Netanyahu's camp.
• The Reservists, Yoaz Hendel. Center-right; wants universal military or national service. Won't join without a Haredi draft law.
• Blue and White, Benny Gantz. Security-minded centrist. Polling below the cutoff.

The Arab lists can run. In September the Central Elections Committee voted to bar Ra'am and the Joint List. On October 2, the Supreme Court unanimously overturned those bans. It also reinstated MK Ofer Cassif, 7-2. Balad's leader, Sami Abou Shahadeh, withdrew his own candidacy before the ruling and remains party chair. The committee is made up mostly of party representatives and is chaired by a Supreme Court justice; its decisions can be appealed to the Supreme Court.

What the polls suggest

The polls show a near-tie. Neither side reaches 61 without help.

By camp (61 needed)

• Netanyahu's bloc: 53 seats
• Opposition: 54 seats
• Arab-majority lists: 13 seats

The dashed line marks 61 seats.

By list

• Likud: 23
• Yashar!: 23
• Together: 12
• The Democrats: 10
• Yisrael Beiteinu: 9
• Otzma Yehudit: 8
• Shas: 8
• United Torah Judaism: 8
• Joint List: 8
• Religious Zionism with Zehut: 6
• Ra'am: 5

Average of the latest poll from each of five pollsters, September 21 to October 5, 2026, published by the Middle East Forum.

• Likud and Yashar are neck and neck for the largest party. Kan's September 28 poll had Yashar 23, Likud 21.
• The Arab lists hold about 12 to 13 seats, roughly the gap between either camp and a majority.
• Polls are not predictions. Small lists near the cutoff can shift several seats either way.
• About the source. The Middle East Forum is a U.S. advocacy group. Its averages line up with individual polls from Kan and others, but it's worth comparing with other polling.

Who will sit with whom

The opposition's challenge isn't only numbers. Its leaders disagree about which partners are acceptable. These are campaign positions as of early October, and they can shift once bargaining starts.

On the other side, Shas and United Torah Judaism see Netanyahu as their most reliable partner, even though UTJ left his government in 2025 over the draft. Ra'am wants to join the next government, as it did in 2021.

The bottom line: the opposition likely needs a Haredi party or Arab-party support to reach 61, and Bennett rules out both. About 70% of Jewish Israelis oppose Arab parties in government, according to polling cited by analysts.

Possible outcomes

Three broad outcomes are realistic, and a deadlock is a real possibility.

1. Netanyahu returns. Likud would again depend on Shas, United Torah Judaism, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, perhaps with a small right-wing list. Expect continued pressure for settlement expansion, opposition to a Palestinian state, resistance to drafting Haredi men, and renewed fights over the courts.
2. An opposition government. Led by Eisenkot, Bennett, Lapid or another opposition figure. It would likely be more institutionally moderate and more willing to require service from Haredi men. It would not necessarily be a "peace government": most opposition leaders are security-focused and haven't promised a sharp break on Gaza or the West Bank. Reaching 61 could take a Haredi party, outside support from Ra'am, or both.
3. No one reaches 61. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker while talks drag on, and Israel could head to another election, as it did five times from 2019 to 2022.

One wild card is Netanyahu's corruption trial. He asked President Herzog for a pardon. In April, Herzog held off deciding and urged both sides to try for a plea deal first. Some analysts think the pardon question could come up in coalition talks, but that is speculation.

Why this election matters

This is the first national vote since October 7, and it will shape questions central to our committee's work.

• Gaza and the West Bank. Whether Israel continues its present military and settlement direction, or moves toward a less expansionist and more internationally coordinated policy.
• Palestinian citizens of Israel. Whether Arab parties can take part meaningfully in national politics and influence who governs.
• Military service. Whether Haredi men keep broad exemptions while secular and national-religious Israelis carry most of the burden.
• Democratic institutions. Whether the next government strengthens judicial independence and oversight, or continues efforts to weaken the Supreme Court and other checks. A related question is whether there will be a state commission of inquiry into October 7.
• Netanyahu's future. Losing power would likely end his time as prime minister and reduce his political leverage, though it wouldn't decide his court case. Winning would strengthen his claim that voters renewed his mandate.
• Israel's place in the world. The next government's choices on Gaza, settlements, courts and Arab citizens will shape relations with the United States, Europe and Arab neighbors.

Sources

Every fact on this page comes from the sources below. Tap to see them all.